‘Recklessness’ may be key to Pacquiao’s victory

By: Christian V. Esguerra - 9 years ago

Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather Jr. pose for the media during the final press conference held at the KA Theatre in MGM Grand, Las Vegas Nevada on Wednesday, 29 April 2015. REM ZAMORA

Not long ago, there was another pure boxer dominating the lower weight divisions. They called him “Iron Boy” but the baby-faced Ivan Calderon of Puerto Rico was more of a “Pretty Boy,” a moniker once owned by Floyd Mayweather Jr.

Like Mayweather, everything about Calderon’s boxing was sublime. Boxing experts took particular notice of his defense, footwork and ring generalship, which all made up for his lack of punching power.

He was virtually untouched as a straw weight and then as a light flyweight, going undefeated in more than 30 fights. Then in 2010, at 35, he ran into Giovani Segura, a less gifted but tough Mexican who would knock him out more easily in their rematch.

Like many other boxers that came before him, Calderon grew old overnight.

Fans rooting for Manny Pacquiao could only hope for a similar ending for Mayweather’s undefeated run when the two best fighters of their generation finally face off on Sunday at MGM Grand in Las Vegas.

But are there signs, based on his more recent fights, that the man who has undeservedly christened himself “The Best Ever” is actually slowing down?

To slow down doesn’t just refer to the loss of mobility, the ability to fight on one’s toes and utilize every part of the ring to his advantage. Feet are just as important as hands in boxing. They’re important to ring generalship, setting traps and moving away from one.

Freddie Roach has been trying to get into Mayweather’s head, claiming that he has lost a step or two. He’s not been moving around as much, Roach adds, suggesting that at 38, Mayweather is ripe for the picking.

Boxing’s ‘old man’

Indeed, the esteemed trainer sees something in Mayweather the rest of us in the gallery do not. But what did you expect?

Mayweather is an old man in boxing terms and definitely not as quick as he was five or 10 years ago. He is more prone to the jab and is throwing fewer punches but still making each of them count.

But this version of Mayweather is still capable of making Pacquiao—boxing’s only titleholder in eight different weight divisions—look clumsy or ordinary.

“He’s reckless,” the brash Mayweather said of Pacquiao, a telling one-liner indicating how he intended to conquer the unpredictable Filipino.

This meant Mayweather would be capitalizing on Pacquiao’s mistakes—and they are not few—as he had done with his last 47 opponents. The last one was Argentine Marcos Maidana, who tried twice and failed each time to put a dent on Mayweather’s immaculate record.

First fight

Their first encounter in May 2014 had the boxing world drooling over the prospect of Mayweather finally slowing down.

Maidana, an all-action brawler slightly refined under trainer Robert Garcia, came out punching from the get-go, driving Mayweather to the ropes and catching him in the head and body from odd angles. The first half of the 12-rounder wasn’t easy for Mayweather and for three rounds or so, it seemed the crude Argentine had finally solved the so-called “Mayvinci Code.”

But as expected, Mayweather out-thought and out-fought Maidana during the second half of the fight and earned a majority decision.

With the Pacquiao fight nowhere in sight, fans called for an immediate rematch. What was supposed to be a tougher outing for Mayweather turned out to be an easy rout.

He moved all around the ring, not actually running, but picking his spots, putting Maidana where he wanted him to be, then potshotting the Argentine. And we thought Mayweather had lost his feet?

Styles make fight

In Mayweather’s last 10 fights, no other fighter probably posed a more serious challenge than Puerto Rican Miguel Cotto. Mayweather cruised to easy victories against Canelo Alvarez, Robert Guerrero and Juan Manuel Marquez.

A well-past-his-prime Shane Mosley caught Mayweather with two good right hands to punctuate combinations that included fakes to the body early in the fight. But Mayweather sucked it up, adjusted then outboxed Mosley the rest of the way.

Don’t be deceived by Mayweather-Pacquiao predictions based on how they performed against common opponents. Styles make fights, they say, but there are many other factors leading to a victory or defeat.

Yes, Pacquiao bludgeoned Cotto en route to a TKO in the final round. But they fought at a 145-pound catchweight, meaning the naturally bigger and stronger Cotto was drained.

It was the same story with Oscar De La Hoya who was so beat up in their 2008 outing that he could no longer answer the bell for the ninth round. The bout was fought at 147 pounds, another catchweight that worked against De La Hoya, who fought as high as middleweight.

Golden Boy

Against Mayweather, De La Hoya was at the more comfortable light middleweight limit. Mayweather won a split decision but struggled early with the Golden Boy’s jabs.

The Cotto fight was a different story for Mayweather. Though he won a unanimous decision, the scorecards didn’t exactly reflect the closeness and competitiveness of the fight.

A converted southpaw, Cotto caught Mayweather often with the jab, pinning him often on the ropes more than the American would have probably wanted. He bloodied Mayweather’s nose at one point but soon settled with predictable combinations. It was only a matter of time before Mayweather figured him out.

More impressive in the Cotto fight was Mayweather’s mental toughness. He was going to jail for domestic abuse afterward but whatever anxiety he had wasn’t enough to spoil his unblemished record. Why Mayweather was beating his women is another story.

Allergic to southpaws

Critics of Mayweather, including former promoter Bob Arum of Top Rank, suggest he’s allergic to southpaws, a claim that needs to be validated based on actual performance.

He’s fought a number of them but no other southpaw perhaps proved more competitive than Zab Judah. Guerrero was easy picking and so was Sharmba Mitchell. In 2011, Mayweather sucker-punched Victor Ortiz in the fourth round in a fight that was generally exciting as long as it lasted.

The highly skilled Judah was super for three rounds or so against Mayweather in 2006. Mayweather actually went down in Round 3 from a right hook counter on his way in. His glove touched the canvas, a clear knockdown, but the referee was looking elsewhere. Mayweather went home with a unanimous decision.

Battle of hooks

Enter Pacquiao, another southpaw, nearly a decade later.

Going by stance, conventional boxing wisdom suggests an advantage for Pacman. Orthodox fighters are not used to fighting southpaws, while left-handed fighters go against them more often.

It will be fun for boxing purists to see how Mayweather intends to outthink and out-punch his mirror image in Pacquiao on Sunday. As a right-hander, Mayweather should be susceptible to Pacquiao’s money punch, the straight left. As a southpaw, Pacquiao’s chin should be an easy target for Mayweather’s straight right.

Look also at the battle of hooks.

Once a one-armed destroyer, Pacquiao developed into a more complete fighter with an equally lethal right hand under Roach. This same right hook troubled Erik Morales in their second fight, and later, Cotto. It ruined Ricky Hatton, another common Mayweather-Pacquiao opponent.

Right hook

Pacquiao times his right hook a split second beyond his orthodox counterpart throws his. That’s how Hatton went down the first time in a two-round demolition. Or Pacquiao can step back to evade a left hook and counter with his own right hook.

Mayweather does the same from the orthodox stance against lefties. At times, he uses his left to tap a pawing jab then go over the top with his left hook.

Another option is to follow the tap with a straight right to the chin, chest or body once the opponent is in position.

It’s easy for Mayweather to do this against much slower fighters like Mitchell and Demarcus Corley. Pacquiao’s own speed and underrated cunning pose a challenge.

Remember Marquez?

Their histories suggest Mayweather would pick Pacquiao apart in a boxing match. He’s no Tim Bradley or Chris Algieri, two fights whose above-average boxings skills should have helped prepare Pacquiao for the master boxer.

Marquez showed us the template to defeating this version of Pacquiao vastly improved at Wild Card.

Remember how Marquez invested with jabs to the body early in Fight 4 then caught Pacquiao with a looping right to the temple even with his arms up? Pacquiao didn’t see it coming and in boxing, the punch you don’t see is often the one that knocks you down or out.

It’s scary because that same punch has been perfected by Mayweather. It was on display against the high guard of Cotto, arguably a better defensive fighter than Pacquiao.

Another weapon of choice for Mayweather is the counter right straight after stepping back from an incoming punch. Pacquiao might receive a steady serving of this on fight night.

Former Filipino welterweight contender and now trainer Rey Pelonia often tells his boxers this: the fight game is as much mental as it is physical. Out-think your opponent and you’ve won half of the battle.

Mayweather is arguably the smartest boxer today. But Pacquiao is not far behind. A common asset is their calmness in the ring, which allows them to preserve their energy and do what they have trained to do.

Key to Mayweather’s downfall

But Mayweather is more calculated, hardly showing frustration even if he is a few rounds behind. Like a chess grandmaster, he has the whole game all figured out.

To be sure, Roach has devised the perfect fight plan against Mayweather. Don’t be surprised if “recklessness”—throwing bombs from unconventional angles, coming in with fakes and feints using quick feet from odd directions—will be in Pacquiao’s arsenal.

Pacquiao’s perpetual motion and volume punching should cause problems for Mayweather. Boxers tend to count and time punches, but this strategy doesn’t exactly work against unpredictable fighters like Pacquiao. Like any other defensive wizard, Mayweather can only block so much.

Las Vegas odds say Mayweather will be victorious over Pacquiao. But this is boxing. For all we know, Pacquiao’s recklessness will be key to Mayweather’s downfall.