Fate of Finals protagonists rests on big shoulders

It’s been called a clash of Titans. Might as well keep an eye on the big men.

Defending champion San Miguel Beer tries to hurdle the last obstacle to its chase for the Philippine Cup Perpetual Trophy when it battles Barangay Ginebra in a best-of-seven series that kicks off Friday.

It would have been fun to sift through both teams’ rosters to hunt for the x-factor that could decide the series but why even bother?

This series revolves around June Mar Fajardo. Even if San Miguel fails to tab the Perpetual Trophy, it has the league’s Perpetual MVP and every challenger to the Beermen’s has to run through the Kraken’s massive physique.

And Barangay Ginebra will try to counter with, well, Japeth Aguilar.

Not that Tim Cone has much of a choice. With Greg Slaughter decommissioned by injury, Aguilar is the Kings’ best big man and in the Finals, how he will fare against Fajardo will determine how Ginebra can overturn a manpower disadvantage.

Because, yes, Ginebra will be paper underdogs in this series. And we didn’t even have to pore over statistics and wrack our brains to arrive at that decision.

Tim Cone did it for us.

“We’re the underdogs here,” said Cone. See?

And he didn’t have to dig deep either to find the reason.

“I’m scared because they have all the weapons,” he explained.

And the main threat is Fajardo. The 6-foot-10 center weaponizes every basketball tool in the San Miguel roster. He frees up guys like Marcio Lassiter, Ronald Tubid and Alex Cabagnot for open shots by simply camping at the post and waiting for other defenders to pitch their tents around him. His ability to pass out of double teams creates open lanes for slashers. More than his numbers, his mere presence is a statistic in itself:

No. of June Mar Fajardos: Beermen 1, Kings, 0.

And that’s saying a lot since his numbers are pretty impressive: 19.4 points on 64% shooting from the field (a clip lowered only because he sometimes takesthose “settle” jumpers from 10 to 12 feet out), 15.2 rebounds (which purchase possessions for the Beermen that make up for those missed jumpers), 2.4 blocks (which make other big men settle for jumpers too) and 1.5 assists (a “fake” stat because it doesn’t include the other extra passes created out of his initial kick-out pass that leads to bail-out jumpers).

Cone will need Aguilar to be super in this matchup.

It won’t be a pure matchup in the sense that Aguilar and Fajardo should not be even guarding each other. But when Cone plays three guards (Thompson, Mercado, Tenorio) and then pairs Aguilar with either Joe Devance (doubtful due to injury), Kevin Ferrer or Jervy Cruz up front, Ginebra doesn’t have much of a choice.

But then again, neither does San Miguel Beer. The beauty of the mismatch is Cone could make it worth both ways. Leo Austria has to play Fajardo major minutes and Fajardo will have several looks at the kind of a lineup from Ginebra, meaning he may have to defend Aguilar. And Aguilar can make his one distinct edge to work by letting his offense be his defense.

Aguilar should have one thought after every successful Ginebra defensive stop: Run. Run hard and get into the offense quickly. The ploy is to lure Fajardo into expending energy chasing after him. Forcing San Miguel Beer’s MVP to work hard defensively might take away some of the offensive sting and make it easier for help defenses to come to Aguilar’s rescue at the post.

Aguilar’s offense (15.5 points per game) generates enough attention so that Fajardo won’t slack off and allow him a few extra paces. And if Fajardo does catch up, Aguilar can widen the space between the San Miguel giant and the rim by using that jump shot of his (one of the few times you’d actually cheer for a 6-foot-9 guy taking jumpers), to create openings for the likes of Scottie Thompson to poach rebounds and produce extra possessions for the Gin Kings.

Ginebra has had a lot (relatively, when compared to the rest of the league) of success against Fajardo lately. They turned him into a granite statue in the Governors’ Cup semifinal decider and then held him to single digits during their elimination round showdown.

If the Kings continue to do that, the Beermen’s weapons that Cone fears so much could end up being duds.

But if the Beermen can reverse the order of their offense by heating up their shooters to create space for Fajardo or if Fajardo has his way and abuses Aguilar down low, this series may be over before anyone can say “Perpetual Trophy.”