Pacquiao 10-1 favorite to win against Marquez
LAS VEGAS—The oddsmakers who churn out betting lines in this glitzy Nevada melting pot are making it even more difficult for gamblers to put money on Manny Pacquiao.
Bookmakers have installed the Filipino ring icon a 10 to 1 favorite to win his fight against Mexican archrival Juan Manuel Marquez on Nov. 12 at the MGM Grand here.
By late Wednesday evening, Pacquiao had peaked as a -1100 favorite in the bout, which will be for the pound-for-pound king’s WBO welterweight title, before stabilizing at -1000 Thursday.
Pacquiao opened up an 8-1 favorite for this bout, the third between two rivals who have fought a pair of close and controversial matches.
“The odds [are] crazy,” said Top Rank chief and fight promoter Bob Arum, who even thought that Pacquiao had peaked merely as a 9-1 favorite.
“If you’re betting values—and gamblers bet on values—what should be the odds based on ability?” he added. “Maybe 2 or 2 ½ to 1 for Manny.”
“9-1 is ridiculous.”
The way the numbers have been posted at sports cafes in both the MGM Grand and at the Mandalay Bay, though, it doesn’t look like there’ll be lots of gambling money on Pacquiao.
“So now, if you’re betting values, the bet to make is on Marquez,” Arum explained. “Gamblers don’t make a wise bet, they bet on values. “So if you bet on Marquez, who should be a 2-1 underdog, and get 9-1 odds, then you’re getting values.
Simply put, at the current rate, a gambler will have to shell out $1,000 to gain a $100 profit. Marquez has been posted a 7-1 underdog (+700). That means a $100 bet on the Mexican counterpuncher, if victorious, could turn in a profit of $700.
Marquez has earlier said he isn’t bothered by the overwhelming betting trend against him—and quite justifiably so.
“The odds won’t help me win a fight,” Marquez said. “People can bet how they want to be, but that won’t affect the fight.”
Even the knockout odds have been struck by a relatively meaningful drop. On Wednesday, there were clear chances to hit big on Pacquiao by betting on a Pacman KO victory in the first three rounds. The odds there were 10-1, meaning a $100 bet would net a $1,000 profit if Pacquiao finished off Marquez in that stretch.
On Thursday, those odds fell to 8 to 1 in rounds one and two and 6 to 1 in round three.
A Marquez victory by knockout in any of the first five rounds, meanwhile, carries 40-1 odds. In fact, the odds are greater that the fight will end in a draw (22-1) than Marquez winning by knockout inside 10 rounds (at least 30-1).
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