The Philippine delegation led by flag bearer Alyssa Valdez parade during the Opening Ceremony of the 28th SEA Games held at the Singapore National Stadium, Singapore Sports Hub.
INQUIRER PHOTO/RAFFY LERMA
It’s always an interesting exercise to predict the country’s gold-medal harvest in the Southeast Asian Games, even if keen sports observers fancy the competition as no more than “barangay games.” To the uninitiated, it’s the lowest form of a multievent meet featuring athletes from different nations.
But the sports media consider predictions of this sort— fearless forecasts if you like— too risky. For one, they invite criticism. To avoid flak if the Filipino athletes miss their target, the media happily pass the crystal ball to sports officials.
Thus, according to the country’s chief of mission to the 11-nation Games, the Philippines could win 50 of the 405 gold medals at stake in the 29th SEA Games, scheduled Aug. 19 to 30, in Kuala Lumpur.
“We’re looking at around 50 golds, based on the projections of the NSAs (national sports associations),” says Cynthia Carrion.
What’s so crucial about the gold haul? For one, the gold won reflect the state of sports in the country. Pundits want to validate suspicions that Philippine sports has stagnated under its present leadership. They rue the fact that the Filipinos have not broken into the top three in the medal tally since 2005. They settled for seventh spot with 29 golds in 2013 in Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar, and sixth, also with 29 golds, in 2015 in Singapore.
The predicted figure for the coming Games represents a mere 12.35 percent of the total gold medals at stake, but Carrion says it will be enough to halt the country’s embarrassing decline in the Games since 2005, when the Philippines won the overall title for the first and only time.
Now you’d ask, where will the national contingent of 498 athletes from 37 sports rake in those mints? The Philippine Olympic Committee is looking at the usual suspects for the bulk of the medals: athletics, archery, wushu, boxing, billiards, taekwondo and triathlon.
Carrion explains that the expected gold output provided by the NSAs looks “too optimistic” and it behooves her to pare it down to a realistic figure. “If you add all of them it’s 65. But I’m only counting 50.”
In all, 24 of the country’s 29 gold medalists in the previous SEA Games in Singapore will be back in Kuala Lumpur.
They are Claire Adorna and Nikko Huelgas in triathlon, Daniel Parantac in wushu, Carlo Biado and Warren Kiamco in 9-ball doubles and Chezka Centeno and Dennis Orcollo in 9-ball singles in billiards, Kiyomi Watanabe in judo, Elvie Baldovino in shooting, Reynald Capellan in gymnastics, Eric Cray, Kyla Richardson and Christoper Ulboc Jr. in athletics, Ian Clark Bautista, Mario Fernandez and Eumir Felix Marcial in boxing, Marella Salamat and Daniel Caluag in cycling, Pauline Lopez, Samuel Thomas Morrison and the men’s poomsae trio in taekwondo, Ridgely Balladares in sailing, Denise Dy (in tandem with Treat Huey) in tennis’ mixed doubles, the men’s rugby squad and the Gilas Pilipinas basketball team.
Athletics, archery and wushu expect to turn in five gold medals each, Carrion says, while lawn balls and taekwondo see four apiece. Billiards and water skiing come next with fearless forecasts of three each.
According to their respective NSAs, basketball, boxing, golf, equestrian, gymnastics, ice skating, judo, karatedo, pencak silat, shooting, squash, tennis, and triathlon are all good for two gold medals each.
Shooting for a single gold apiece are cycling, fencing, football, ice hockey, muay, petanque, rugby, sailing, sepak takraw, and table tennis.
In athletics, Cray looms as the favorite to bag the gold anew in his pet 400-meter hurdles event, as well as in the century dash, which he narrowly won two years ago in Singapore. Cray is also expected to be part of a crack 4x100m relay quartet together with another Filipino-American, Trenten Beram, who happens to be a strong contender in the 200m and 400m.
Based on their recent performances in international meets, pole vaulter EJ Obiena, triple jumper Mark Harry Diones, long jumper Janry Ubas and back-to-back Games 3000m steeplechase champion Ulboc could also strike gold, according to the Philippine Amateur Track and Field Association (Patafa).
Richardson, also a Fil-Am, is expected to retain her women’s 100m title and may be a force this time in the 200m where she landed a silver in Singapore.
Patafa president Phillip Ella Juico is reluctant, however, to include the much-improved Mary Joy Tabal in his list of “prospective gold medalists.”
Apart from their sure slots in the 4x100m relay squad, Cray and Beram may be picked to join Archand Bagsit and Edgardo Alejan in the 4x400m relay—another potential gold source for the Filipinos like the 800m and 1500m, where Mervin Guarte is considered as one of the race favorites.
Should these athletes unleash maximum form in Kuala Lumpur, athletics could bring home as many as nine golds—a figure that even Juico himself says will be “very hard to attain.”
Triathlon offers a strong proposition with Adorna and Huelgas again primed to dominate the field.
Billiards is capable of pocketing three golds with Centeño and Rubilen Amit tipped to contest the women’s 9-ball singles title. Also favored to prevail is Biado in the men’s singles and former world champion Orcollo and Kiamco in the 9-ball doubles.
Results in combat sports are harder to predict, however, as these disciplines are not measurable like those in, say, track and field, triathlon or aquatics. A combatant’s chances actually rests on recent form, pre-Games preparations and luck.
Because its fighters have consistently performed well overseas recently, boxing believes it has a strong crack at several golds. But Bautista, Marcial, Fernandez, Charly Suarez and two other boxers are actually gunning for just two golds.
Olympian Kirstie Elaine Alora and fellow taekwondo-jins Lopez, Morrison and Francis Agojo are tipped to go all the way to the finals while the poomsae trio of Dustin Jacob Mella, Raphael Enrico Mella and Rodolfo Reyes Jr. set out for a reprise of their golden performance in Singapore.
Judo’s Watanabe and muay fighters Jonathan Polosan and Phillip Delarmino are also considered “bright spots,” as are karatekas Mae Soriano and OJ Delos Santos.
Gilas Pilipinas guns for crucial wins against Thailand and Indonesia, both of which have beefed up their lineups with foreign players. Though ranked as the region’s No. 1 this year, the cagebelles of coach Patrick Aquino expect tough matches against the former champion Thais and the host Malaysians.
Ranked No. 4 in Asia, the men’s rugby squad is the heavy pick to sweep their matches.
Reigning Asian Games champion Caluag is a cinch to bag the BMX gold anew while road racers George Oconer, Mark Galedo, Ronald Oranza, Rustom Lim and Marcelo Felipe have a good shot at the gold in the individual criterium and team time trial.
Also among the gold-medal prospects, according to the NSAs, are equestrienne Toni Leviste, ice-skater Michael Christian Martinez, windsurfer Geylord Coveta, weightlifter Nestor Colonia and gymnasts Capellan and Maria Cristina Onofre.
Carrion says 50 golds will surely boost the Filipinos to fourth overall. Expected to weigh down the country’s prospects, though, is its historical weakness in the medal-rich sports of pencak silat, aquatics and shooting.
Aquatics in Kuala Lumpur offers 60 golds, including 40 in swimming. Pencak silat dangles 20, while shooting has 14. Philippine swimming hasn’t won a gold since 2009, when Miguel Molina won two in Laos.
Carrion, who also heads the Gymnastics Association of the Philippines, says the Filipino athletes are gunning for a berth in the top five this time.
“That’s why we’re really urging the NSAs and their athletes to do their part,” she says. “We’re all in this together and No. 4 (overall) is the performance that we’re chasing.”