‘Recklessness’ may be key to Pacquiao’s victory

Allergic to southpaws

Critics of Mayweather, including former promoter Bob Arum of Top Rank, suggest he’s allergic to southpaws, a claim that needs to be validated based on actual performance.

He’s fought a number of them but no other southpaw perhaps proved more competitive than Zab Judah. Guerrero was easy picking and so was Sharmba Mitchell. In 2011, Mayweather sucker-punched Victor Ortiz in the fourth round in a fight that was generally exciting as long as it lasted.

The highly skilled Judah was super for three rounds or so against Mayweather in 2006. Mayweather actually went down in Round 3 from a right hook counter on his way in. His glove touched the canvas, a clear knockdown, but the referee was looking elsewhere. Mayweather went home with a unanimous decision.

Battle of hooks

Enter Pacquiao, another southpaw, nearly a decade later.

Going by stance, conventional boxing wisdom suggests an advantage for Pacman. Orthodox fighters are not used to fighting southpaws, while left-handed fighters go against them more often.

It will be fun for boxing purists to see how Mayweather intends to outthink and out-punch his mirror image in Pacquiao on Sunday. As a right-hander, Mayweather should be susceptible to Pacquiao’s money punch, the straight left. As a southpaw, Pacquiao’s chin should be an easy target for Mayweather’s straight right.

Look also at the battle of hooks.

Once a one-armed destroyer, Pacquiao developed into a more complete fighter with an equally lethal right hand under Roach. This same right hook troubled Erik Morales in their second fight, and later, Cotto. It ruined Ricky Hatton, another common Mayweather-Pacquiao opponent.

Right hook

Pacquiao times his right hook a split second beyond his orthodox counterpart throws his. That’s how Hatton went down the first time in a two-round demolition. Or Pacquiao can step back to evade a left hook and counter with his own right hook.

Mayweather does the same from the orthodox stance against lefties. At times, he uses his left to tap a pawing jab then go over the top with his left hook.

Another option is to follow the tap with a straight right to the chin, chest or body once the opponent is in position.

It’s easy for Mayweather to do this against much slower fighters like Mitchell and Demarcus Corley. Pacquiao’s own speed and underrated cunning pose a challenge.